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Diagnosing snow accumulation errors in a rain‐snow transitional environment with snow board observations 下载免费PDF全文
Diagnosing the source of errors in snow models requires intensive observations, a flexible model framework to test competing hypotheses, and a methodology to systematically test the dominant snow processes. We present a novel process‐based approach to diagnose model errors through an example that focuses on snow accumulation processes (precipitation partitioning, new snow density, and snow compaction). Twelve years of meteorological and snow board measurements were used to identify the main source of model error on each snow accumulation day. Results show that modeled values of new snow density were outside observational uncertainties in 52% of days available for evaluation, while precipitation partitioning and compaction were in error 45% and 16% of the time, respectively. Precipitation partitioning errors mattered more for total winter accumulation during the anomalously warm winter of 2014–2015, when a higher fraction of precipitation fell within the temperature range where partition methods had the largest error. These results demonstrate how isolating individual model processes can identify the primary source(s) of model error, which helps prioritize future research. 相似文献
83.
Multivariate properties of extreme precipitation events in the Pearl River basin,China: Magnitude,frequency, timing,and related causes 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1 下载免费PDF全文
Daily precipitation/temperature data collected at 74 weather stations across the Pearl River basin of China (PRBC), for the years 1952–2013, were used to analyse extreme precipitation (EP) processes at annual and seasonal scales in terms of precipitation magnitude, occurrence rates, and timing. Peak‐over‐threshold sampling, modified Mann‐Kendall trend tests, and Poisson regression model were utilized in this study. Causes driving the observed statistical behaviours of EP were investigated, focusing particularly on the impacts of temperature change and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). EP events, which occur mainly during April and September, are most frequent in June. At an annual scale, they are subject to relatively even interannual distributions during the wet season. Significant trends were observed in the magnitude, frequency, and timing of EP events during the dry seasons, although no such trends were seen during the wet seasons. Seasonal shifts in EP can easily trigger sudden flood or drought events and warming temperatures, and ENSO events also have significant impacts on EP processes across the PRBC, as reflected by their increased magnitude and frequency in the western PRBC and decreased precipitation magnitudes in the eastern PRBC during ENSO periods. These results provide important evidence of regional hydrological responses to global climate changes in terms of EP regimes in tropical and subtropical zones. 相似文献
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85.
Subramani Saravanan Govindan Nagarajan Radhakrishnan Ramanujam Santhanam Sampath 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2011,39(6):515-521
The main objective of this work is to investigate the factors influencing the NOx control of a stationary diesel engine fuelled with crude rice bran oil blend with lesser effect on smoke density and brake thermal efficiency (BTE). Fuel injection timing, percentage of EGR, and fuel injection pressure are chosen as the factors for the objective and NOx emission, smoke density, and BTE are considered as the response variables. To critically analyze the effects of the chosen factors on the objective three levels were chosen in each factor and the experiments were designed by following the design of experiments method. Taguchi's L9 orthogonal array was used to conduct the tests with different combination of factor levels. Through analysis of variance (ANOVA) method, the most influencing factors and also the significance of each factor affecting each response variable were found out. Response graph was drawn for each response variable to determine the optimum combination of factor levels in achieving the objective and the obtained combination was confirmed experimentally. 相似文献
86.
In this study, a methodology for clustering 18 lakes in Alberta, Canada using the data of 19 water quality parameters for a period of 11 years (1988–2002) is presented. The methods consist of (i) principal component analysis (PCA) to determine the dominant water quality parameters, (ii) cluster analysis techniques to develop the characteristics of the clusters, and (iii) pattern‐match lakes to determine the appropriate cluster for each of the lakes. The PCA revealed that three principal components (PCs) were able to explain ~88% of the variability and the dominant water quality parameters were total dissolved solids, total phosphorus, and chlorophyll‐a. We obtained five clusters for the period 1994–1997 by using the dominant parameters with water quality deteriorating as the cluster number increased from 1 to 5. Upon matching cluster patterns with the entire dataset, it was observed that some of the lakes belonged to the same cluster all the time (e.g., cluster 1 for lakes Elkwater, Gregg, and Jarvis; cluster 3 for Sturgeon; cluster 4 for Moonshine; and cluster 5 for Saskatoon), while others changed with time. This methodology could be applied in other regions of the world to identify the most suitable source waters and prioritize their management. It could be helpful to analyze the natural controlling processes, pollution types, impact of seasonal changes and overall quality of source waters. This methodology could be used for monitoring water bodies in a cost effective and efficient way by sampling only less number of dominant parameters instead of using a large set of parameters. 相似文献
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基于主成分和模糊C-均值聚类算法的农业水资源高效利用综合分区 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
基于农业生态系统环境要素、水的资源属性、水资源的高效利用内涵、生产力水平、土地利用方式、种植结构及种植模式等因子,选取构建农业水资源高效利用综合分区的指标体系(16个定量指标、4个定性指标),采用主成分分析和模糊C-均值聚类算法为区划方法,对川中丘陵区进行量化分区。研究结果将川中丘陵区16个地级市和一个县级市(简阳)分为农业水资源较低利用区、农业水资源低效利用区、农业水资源中等利用区、农业水资源高效利用区和农业水资源较高效利用区5个区,这对南方季节性干旱区水资源利用规划有较强的借鉴作用。 相似文献
89.
山洪灾害监测雨量站网密度分析探讨 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
暴雨是诱发山洪的主要原因,雨量监测站网的布设至关重要。本文采用抽站法和流域水文模型法对江西遂川江流域雨量站网密度进行了分析研究,得出允许误差控制下的最少监测站数量。对比分析站网密度公式计算结果,大流域内的子流域区划对雨量站数量有很大影响。综合考虑流域特征、地形起伏及流域内人口密度、社会经济水平等因素修正的站网密度公式,为无资料地区山洪监测预警系统建设提供参考。 相似文献
90.
井壁稳定问题包括井壁坍塌和地层破裂2种基本类型,科学超深井钻探的目的层是处于高地应力、高地温和高地层压力的深部岩层,井壁稳定问题更加突出。以12000 m科学超深井为例,从地层温度入手,分析钻井液循环温度变化所引起的当量静态钻井液密度和环空压力当量密度的变化,以及温梯应力、温差应力对井壁稳定的影响。 相似文献